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Smith on a very hot seat as Kentucky keeps floundering
The e-mail arrived so fast the ink on last week's column was still wet. I had the audacity to write on good authority that Kentucky athletic director Mitch Barnhart would not spend the millions to make coach Tubby Smith go away. As it turns out, the prominent Kentucky booster quickly wrote me, the boosters are furious and are willing to pass the hat to make it happen.
Whether Barnhart will actually listen and bow to boosters won't be known until later this month. That's because unless unranked Kentucky (20-9) reaches the Final Four, it will extend a drought to a school-record nine straight years. At 9-6 in the Southeastern Conference with a chance to finish fifth in the East Division, there is no run on Atlanta hotel rooms by Kentuckians for late March.
What's clear is that one of the premier coaching jobs in the land is in turmoil. Talking to prominent boosters and alumni this week, it's clear that Smith's fan base has eroded to the point of open hostility. A mob mentality is forming, and Barnhart didn't help Smith's nerves with Monday's vague statement that he understands the fans' concerns. He went on to warn fans not to evaluate the team until later this month when it "still can play up to its potential."
If I'm a coach, I'm not putting that statement on my résumé.
The complaints with Smith are numerous. Let's start with the numbers. Unless Kentucky runs the table and wins the national title, this will mark double-digit losses in a record five of the past eight years. This will also be only the second time Kentucky has finished third or lower in the SEC in back-to-back seasons.
The four consecutive losses to Vanderbilt mark the first time a Kentucky team has lost four consecutive to an SEC school since 1980. He has had 17 players leave in nine years.
However, the intangibles are what are killing Smith. His current team is void of the kind of talent that has built Kentucky into the winningest program in history. It's last in the SEC in turnover margin, has no power forward and can't win close games.
Keep in mind this is a coach who is only two years removed from losing to Michigan State in two overtimes for a Final Four berth. He won a national title in his first year at Kentucky in 1998 and reached the Elite Eight three other times. He has been national coach of the year twice, and his .733 winning percentage in the NCAA Tournament is higher than the school's overall percentage at the dance of .697.
However, his growing band of critics say he won the title with Rick Pitino's players, and one look at the roster says Smith has lost more recruiting wars recently than he has won. He doesn't have a single sophomore on his active roster.
An NBA scout told me, "They used to have more McDonald's All-Americans than McDonald's. Now they have more McDonald's than McDonald's All-Americans."
One prominent alumnus who was raised in Kentucky told me not to discount Smith's being an African-American. It's a factor here, and don't think Smith hasn't felt the racist overtones. That's one reason some felt he flirted with the Charlotte Bobcats last year and might explore the NBA again.
At the end of last season, Smith clashed with Barnhart, who tried to get Smith to make changes on his staff. Smith refused, and the Wildcats did not improve.
If Smith does bolt, or Barnhart pulls the trigger, what then? Barnhart has long admired Florida coach Billy Donovan, a Kentucky assistant for five years long before turning Florida into last year's national champion. If Barnhart hasn't already talked to Donovan, then he definitely would if Smith left.
And if Donovan hasn't listened yet, he might then. One ex-Kentucky player says Donovan would leave Florida for Kentucky. It makes sense. Whoever heard of winning a national title and still not being the No. 1 coach in your own athletic department?
Nothing has happened yet and Smith could still very well be coaching Kentucky next year. But he has lost four of his last six games and visits fourth-ranked Florida on Sunday. And seats in Kentucky get real hot in March.
UPDATE: Doug Eades with the newspaper in Somerset wrote the following facts today.
- In 10 years at UK, Tubby Smith has suffered 19 losses at Rupp Arena. Rick Pitino suffered only 5 losses at Rupp in eight years on the job. (7 losses if you count the probation year.)
- Tubby Smith, with one more loss this year, will suffer his fifth double digit loss season in 10 years as UK's coach, compared to none by Rick Pitino. (1 if you count the probation year.)
- Games played in, when the Cats were ranked number one in the nation: 10 under Pitino - 4 under Tubby.
- The number of Team Turmoils in the program: Pitino 0 - Tubby 2.
- The number of NBA first round draft picks from Kentucky: 10 under Pitino - 2 under Tubby.
- The number of transfers out of the program: 7 under Pitino - 14 under Tubby.
- Rick Pitino's first Kentucky team, saddled with probation in the 1989-90 season, averaged 10 points per game more than all but two of Tubby Smith's Kentucky teams. Pitino's teams averaged 8.9 points per game more than those two teams.
- In Pitino's last year at Kentucky, a runner-up to Arizona in the 1997 national championship game at the RCA Dome in Indianapolis, Kentucky averaged 83.13 points per game. Tubby's UK teams, beginning in his first year on the job, have averaged the following: 1997-98 -80.08; 1998-99 -75.41; 1999-00 -69.09; 2000-01 -79.79; 2001-02 -76.88; 2002-03 -77.28; 2003-04 -73.91; 2004-05 -73.62; 2005-06 -70.77; and 2006-07 -72.32, entering the Georgia game earlier this week.
- The number of Final Fours: Pitino has been to five Final Fours, 3 with Kentucky. Tubby has been to one Final Four-the 1998 national championship team (Pitino's players).
- Tubby Smith has never recruited a kid that has played in a Final Four, and that counts his time at Tulsa and Georgia. Let me say that again. Tubby Smith has never recruited a player that has played in a Final Four. I wonder how that idiot Dick Vitale could spin that fact in Tubby's favor?
- One last tidbit. Rick Pitino has defeated 11 teams seeded 5th or higher in 6 NCAA Tournaments, while Tubby Smith has defeated 4 teams seeded 5th or higher, in 9 NCAA Tournaments. Tubby has defeated only one team seeded fifth or higher since his first season at Kentucky.
Numbers don't lie. It's time to go.
